Tropical update: Watching Tropical Storm Karl & a wave

It’s another day in the tropics and we are monitoring tropical storm Karl, which is set to make landfall in Mexico and a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Karl moves very slowly over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The storm has made a loop and went from moving to the northwest to moving barely moving today to then moving to the south-southeast.

The winds have shifted causing Karl to make this loop but there is also a front that will push Karl to the South, hence its southward trajectory later Thursday through landfall.

The front that will cause Karl to gain forward speed to the south is barely arriving in coastal Texas and will receive a push from an incoming high-pressure system finally making the front advance faster.

Wind shear is increasing Thursday. Although Karl gain a bit of strength yesterday, reaching 60 mph, this strength is expected to dwindle as the shear will start to break the system as it moves south. At landfall, on Saturday morning, Karl is forecast to have 45 mph wind speeds. Torrential rains will affect the Mexican states of Veracruz and Tabasco.

The next system we will be monitoring this week is a tropical wave that emerged from Africa. This is a tropical wave that could gain enough strength by the weekend to receive a name or be classified as a depression. But long-range models show that there could be dry air as it slowly moves to the west-northwest and once it is between Africa and the Windward Islands could lose its classification, going back to tropical wave status.

Some models show the wave then moving northward, and possibly redeveloping once it is over the Central Atlantic, fortunately well away from land. This is over a week from now, so we will continue to monitor closely as the atmospheric conditions can change.