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Tuesday's live blog: Pressure drop noted in Ian's center

11:30 PM
September 27, 2022

Tuesday's live blog: Ian
Pressure drop recorded in Ian's center

8 p.m. Hurricane Ian track update: Strengthening expected overnight, Ian forecast to become a major category 4 hurricane8 p.m. Hurricane Ian track update: Strengthening expected overnight, Ian forecast to become a major category 4 hurricane

This is a blog that will be updated throughout the day about Major Hurricane Ian as it moves toward the west of the Florida Peninsula. Timestamps on local Eastern Time.

8:00 p.m. update:

Ian's winds remain at 120 mph as of 8 p.m. but strengthening is expected overnight. Ian will pass by the Florida Keys overnight but the forward speed is expected to decrease, giving this system plenty of time to take advantage of the warm Gulf waters and little shear.

The National Hurricane Center has described this situation as "extremely dangerous" and will impact the Florida Peninsula with life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding.

7:30 p.m. update:

A notable pressure drop has been recorded in Major Hurricane Ian's center, showing signs of strengthening as it heads near category 4 status. The pressure of 947 millibars is he lowest hurricane pressure in the Gulf of Mexico since Hurricane Irma in 2017.

As Ian moves into Florida, the highest rain totals could exceed 24 inches causing dangerous flooding. This is on top of the up to 12 foot storm surge forecast. Ian is expected to continue strengthening tonight before landfall takes place Wednesday evening.

5:00 p.m. update:

The latest update extends the hurricane warning from the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, to Chokoloskee as the area of landfall shifts slightly southward.

Life-threatening storm surge is one of the main threats as Ian approaches the southwest Florida coast. At the time of high tide, water levels could reach up to 12 feet high as the storm surge rushes in. Damaging winds more than 120 mph with higher gusts are expected as Ian comes ashore Wednesday evening.

3:15 p.m. update:

Ian's storm surge has arrived in the lower Florida Keys. High waves are battering the Key West sea wall and a surge of 2 to 4 feet is still expected through tonight. As of 3 p.m., Ian's center was located about 75 miles south-southwest of Dry Tortugas. Key West is 70 miles east of the National Park. The hurricane's top sustained winds are 120 mph.

2 p.m. update:

Ian continues to strengthen as it moves further into the southeastern Gulf with landfall expected in southwest Florida (SWFL). With sustained winds at 120 mph and higher gusts, Ian is a strong category 3 major hurricane and is expected to make landfall as at least a category 3 hurricane in southwest Florida.

Due to the southward shift in landfall location, landfall is expected between 6 and 12 hours earlier compared to previous forecasts. At this time, landfall is expected during Wednesday evening in SWFL.

Damaging winds aside, Ian will bring dangerous storm surge as high as 12 feet in coastal areas that are dry even during high tide. Ian's impacts have already begun reaching Florida as the outer bands bring in flooding rains, thunderstorms, and a chance for tornadoes.

Noon update:

Rain bands continue moving north over Florida. Rainfall totals, in some places, will be measured in feet, even for some inland locations.

For coastal residents, especially those to the right and top of where the center makes landfall, storm surge will be life-threatening. Heavy rainfall will also add to the flooding levels.

11 a.m. update:

Key West is measuring sustained winds at 30 mph as the rain bands continue to stream in and Hurricane Ian exits Cuba. the latest track has shifted east and Hurricane Ian is now slated to make landfall south of Tampa Bay on Wednesday night into Thursday.

With this track, the hurricane would make landfall as a major category hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 125 mph. The landfall point could still shift north or south as Ian still needs to travel northward over the warm eastern Gulf of Mexico waters.

Although this improves a bit the chance for storm surge for the Tampa Bay area as the center is forecast to be a bit more south, higher and worse storm surge levels shift now to the Charlotte Harbor area. Cape Coral, Fort Myers, and Port Charlotte will be impacted by violent winds and major flooding due to storm surge, and rain is probable under this scenario.

9 a.m. update

A tornado watch was put in place for South Florida, including for the Keys, Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hendry, and Collier Counties. Rain bands will be moving from north to south and the embedded thunderstorms could produce brief tornadoes that could cause significant damage. A watch means that conditions are possible in the highlighted area.

As the rain bands move toward Central Florida, there will likely be a watch issued too for this area later on Tuesday.

8 a.m. update:

Ian travels over western Cuba hammering the region with 125 mph sustained winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane warning is in effect from Englewood to the Tampa Bay area and for Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the Florida Keys, and Florida’s Space Coast.

The track continues to shift. Tuesday morning showed a more eastward turn, which would place Major Hurricane Ian passing over Tampa Bay, slowing down as it rides close to the I-4 corridor. This would bring major damages to the Central Florida area, including Orlando. The biggest worry continues to be heavy rainfall and flooding inland and devastating to catastrophic storm surge across the Tampa Bay area, up to 14 feet.

Sunrise update:

Ian made landfall just southwest of La Coloma in Pinar del Río, Cuba around 4:30 a.m. Tuesday as a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

As predicted, Ian continues to intensify and will likely reach category 4 status later on Tuesday as it moves over the very warm eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Ian’s rain bands started affecting Florida on Monday and will continue to intensify on Tuesday. They will become more constant traveling from south to north. These rainbands will be moving fast and will likely have embedded thunderstorms within. These embedded thunderstorms could produce strong gusts and tornadoes.

Tropical storm force winds will start across the Florida Keys shortly after 12 p.m. on Tuesday and propagate northward toward South Florida by the evening.

Ian is now moving north. We will start to monitor closely Ian’s proximity to Florida’s west coast. A closer track will increase the storm surge significantly across portions of southwest Florida.

Irene Sans
Becca Parker
James West
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