Warm Atlantic vs. El NiñoA showdown in the tropics
The Atlantic is warm: The Atlantic Ocean is currently running warmer than usual. This is important because warm water acts as fuel for tropical storms. Imagine the Atlantic as a big pot of water, and the heat is turned up right now.
The El Niño Factor: Meanwhile, El Niño, which is a weather phenomenon characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is activating to suppress tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.
The Caribbean Surprise: There's an important movement happening high up in the atmosphere. Large-scale convection, which can be imagined as big upward movements of moist air, is shifting toward our side of the world. This will initially boost storm activity in the eastern Pacific, but eventually, it creates a conducive environment for tropical systems to form.
Shift in the atmosphere: There's a forecasted shift in the air currents over the tropical Atlantic: they're expected to come mainly from the west. This is not typical during an El Niño phase. These westerly winds result in cyclonic (or counterclockwise) circulations in the Atlantic atmosphere, which makes storm formation more likely.
What Does This Mean for Us?
