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Warm Atlantic vs. El Niño: A Showdown in the Tropics

11:00 PM
August 15, 2023

Warm Atlantic vs. El Niño
A showdown in the tropics

irma

Late August is serving up a meteorological showdown. It's about to test the theory that a warm Atlantic Ocean can spark considerable tropical storms even in the presence of an El Niño.

Weather models are showing multiple atmospheric factors, some working in favor and others against tropical development over the next two weeks. Let's break this down so we can all understand what's happening.

  • The Atlantic is warm: The Atlantic Ocean is currently running warmer than usual. This is important because warm water acts as fuel for tropical storms. Imagine the Atlantic as a big pot of water, and the heat is turned up right now.
  • The El Niño Factor: Meanwhile, El Niño, which is a weather phenomenon characterized by warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is activating to suppress tropical storm activity in the Atlantic.
  • The Caribbean Surprise: There's an important movement happening high up in the atmosphere. Large-scale convection, which can be imagined as big upward movements of moist air, is shifting toward our side of the world. This will initially boost storm activity in the eastern Pacific, but eventually, it creates a conducive environment for tropical systems to form.
  • Shift in the atmosphere: There's a forecasted shift in the air currents over the tropical Atlantic: they're expected to come mainly from the west. This is not typical during an El Niño phase. These westerly winds result in cyclonic (or counterclockwise) circulations in the Atlantic atmosphere, which makes storm formation more likely.

What Does This Mean for Us?

Even though it's been quiet in the Atlantic for weeks, history has shown us that this is the time when storm activity typically starts to increase. To put it into perspective, more than 80 percent of the season's usual activity is yet to come.

Latest tropical updateread more

Given the time of year and the delicate interplay of these atmospheric conditions, we may be on the cusp of a very active period of tropical storm development.

Stay tuned! We have daily tropical updates that will delve into each potential storm as they form and threaten.

Federico Di Catarina
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