Weather preview: Active week: storms, flooding risk
May 8, 2023
Active week: storms, flooding risk
Every day this week will have some form of weather threat. Severe storms will put the central Plains at risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. A series of storms and fronts will linger through the week enhancing the risk for flash flooding over Texas, the Central Plains, and the Northern Plains.
On Tuesday, another storm emerges from the Rockies and enhances the chance for severe weather across parts of the central Plains. A level two out of five, on the severity scale, will be mainly focused across parts of northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and parts of the Texas Panhandle. Another spot with a slight chance, level two out of five, is focused across the eastern portion of North Carolina. In both areas, the chance for large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two is possible.
With the high-pressure system in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere located over the southeastern United States, all the storms will continue to ride northward, causing a blockage toward the northern Plains, staying away from crossing to the east. This pattern will keep an active setup located from the southern Plains to the northern Plains for the middle of the week.
In fact, for Wednesday the low-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be injecting enough instability to even bring the chance for severe weather across parts of eastern Colorado through southeastern Wyoming. Parts of West Texas, extending from Amarillo all the way southward toward Del Rio, could also experience isolated severe storms mainly in the afternoon, along the dry line.
For Thursday the setup barely moves. The slight risk for severe weather expands from northeastern Colorado and covers the western portion of Kansas and Oklahoma.
As these storms set up camp across the same general areas this week, we can expect high rainfall amounts to bring an increased risk for flash floods. Looking at weather maps, much of Texas could receive between 1.5 and three inches of rain. These same amounts extend over much of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, all the way northwestward to eastern Wyoming, and southeastern Montana.
Longer-range models show that much of Texas will be receiving above 4 inches of rain through next Monday. This means that from Thursday through Monday, a rainy setup will still be in place across the Lone Star State. From areas around Del Rio, bordering Mexico, through San Antonio, Austin, and even parts of North Texas could receive between five and seven inches of rain. There could be some areas with isolated 10 inches of rain.
There could be a sharp difference between areas just west of downtown Houston to the east. Most models show that the rain totals decrease drastically to the east of Houston as compared to the west where heavy rain is likely to fall. Remember to turn around and don’t drown when encountering flooded roads.