As we have become too familiar with in recent years, off-season storms are not that rare. They have become more frequent in May, but the month of April is no stranger for to tropical storms.

It’s getting closer to “that time of the year,” and we are not referring to Christmas, we are talking about hurricane season. This Thursday, April 13, we will have the first full reminder that the season is approaching as Colorado State University issues its forecast for the 2023 hurricane season. But aside from the long-awaited forecast, there is also the chance for tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico.

The chance is low, but it’s there. Regardless of development, the Gulf States need to prepare for heavy rounds of rain throughout the week. If this system were to develop, it would be the first time a tropical storm (or subtropical) would be recorded in April in the Gulf of Mexico. There have been April tropical systems formed over the Atlantic. Most recently, it was in 2017, which was 6 years ago, which used the same list (minus retired names) that we will use this 2023 season. Arlene was that April central Atlantic storm that formed.

In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana formed on April 20, and although it did not hit Florida directly as it formed east of Bermuda. As it was moving eastward, it was a large storm and the swells reached the east coast of Florida and caused a boat to capsize. Two occupants were rescued, and the other two drowned.

Yes, La Niña is gone. But turns it out that in the atmosphere, not everything is quickly shut off. La Niña or El Niño is just one ingredient in the whole tropical recipe. We are not in an El Niño yet, so technically, there could still be some La Niña traces left over in the atmosphere.

If a system forms before the season starts does not mean that the season will be busy. There have been seasons where the off-season or the beginning of the season is more active than its peak.

If El Niño develops, as it is forecast to do, it also does not mean that there won’t be any storms forming. There will still be storms developing, it just means that there is less probability of having an above-average season.

Even if one storm forms and it is strong enough and hits a highly populated area, it can be as catastrophic or worse than a season with many storms that stay offshore.