Broad tropical wave, broad problems in track & impacts

A large tropical wave is on the move and its lack of organization brings a more westerly track. This forecast goes in-depth at what the impacts could be at this early point, still without a well-defined center of circulation.

First of all, this system is now officially labeled as Invest 97L. This means that is a system officially monitored and the chances of it organizing are better and more established. Our WeatherRadar shows a large system with a wide range of storms extending from the northern Caribbean through just east of Turk and Caicos. This disturbance is expected to continue large and very disorganized through the end of the work week and into the weekend.

This messiness is preventing the system from making the curve northward, east of Florida. Instead, it will remain messy. Once it moves over the Bahamas and near South Florida conditions will become more favorable for this system to organize, entering the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

What does this mean for Florida?

In short, it will be a rainier than normal weekend, with storms moving mainly from south to north, on Saturday and west to east and some erratic on Sunday. The shower and storm activity will remain high through early next week across much of the Peninsula, bringing high flood risk for many areas in Florida.

The big question remains: if and when this system will become a tropical storm or hurricane?

Based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast there could still be 7 days until this system receives a name, which puts us on next Thursday, August 8. There is lots of uncertainty about it becoming a strong hurricane. Florida needs to be ready for a big rain event, especially Central, North Florida and the Panhandle.

Very early rainfall forecast maps show some areas receiving over 7 inches, especially for southwest, central and North Florida. Keep in mind that we have a long stretch to go, and lots of factors at play, so exact amounts on exact locations will change. Our team of meteorologists will bring you another update Friday morning and throughout the weekend.