When snow will fall? Why snow forecasts can be unreliable

During the colder months, many of us want to find out if it will snow in our area. It is tricker than you may think to say.

Snow is actually very hard to forecast, and the bottom line of a snow forecast is that you should never believe one that is for more than three days ahead. Even then, forecasts for one day ahead can be incorrect. It mostly comes down to temperature, altitude, and geographic location. Let us explain why.

The temperature of the air is perhaps the most crucial aspect when looking at a snow forecast. Generally, when temperatures are below 35.6°F, snow is possible. Temperatures less than 32°F bring more dry and powdery snow. While this sounds simple, whether the precipitation actually hits the ground as snow depends on the temperature of the air it's falling through.

Most precipitation first falls as snow from clouds, even sometimes in the summer months because it is so much colder higher up in the atmosphere. If the air temperature is low enough throughout the layers, it is likely to stay as snow. If the snow travels through a warmer patch of air, it will melt and turn into rain or sleet.

Altitude is another important aspect. For every 328 feet in altitude, temperatures generally fall by 1°C. This explains why mountaintops often see more in the way of snow during autumn and winter compared to areas at lower levels.

Thirdly, location is significant. If you live in a city or on the coast, it’s likely to be warmer than the surrounding area, so the snow could be just a few miles up the road. The same goes for it generally being colder at higher altitudes. Watch for snowfall on the WeatherRadar as we move through the colder months!