Early week severe, tornadic storms

Remember that potent storm that produced feet of snow across the Sierras and Cascades, which also causes torrential rains along the West Coast? Well, it is on the move and the weather is about to get much more active for the Central Plains and South early this week, even with a (growing) possibility of severe storms.

As the storm moves over the Rockies on Sunday, there will be plenty of warm air coming over the Central Plains. There is a slight risk, level 1 of 5, of severe storms from north-central Texas northward to central Kansas. Cities like Oklahoma City and Wichita could experience some severe storms with the main threats being hail, storm gusts, and a brief tornado on Monday afternoon into the evening.

Although there will be low-level moisture on Monday to support isolated severe storms, there will be deeper moisture available on Tuesday to produce a higher risk of severe storms.

The area at risk of severe weather extends from eastern Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi. Specifically, for much of northern Louisiana, and extreme southern Arkansas there is a level 3 out of 5 (enhanced) of severe weather. There is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point in the area in red below.

Thunderstorms will likely become stronger as Tuesday afternoon progresses, and they move over extreme eastern Texas toward Louisiana and Arkansas. Storms will likely be in linear motion and there could be some storms developing ahead of the main severe event. As the strongest storms develop in the afternoon, the tornado threat will increase. By the evening, the greatest risk will be over the Delta region and Lower Mississippi Valley. There is a chance that some storms could still be tornadic after sunset in this area.

Along with the chance for tornadoes, storms could develop hail and damaging gusts. Storms will also come packed with lightning.

Make sure to plan accordingly and have at least 3 ways of receiving weather alerts. We will be finetuning the timing and area at risk on Monday.