Election Day forecast! Snow & storms

The busiest Tuesday that occurs every 4 years is here; weather could play a part for many across the South and Great Lakes. The Breakfast Brief is published Monday to Friday at 5 a.m. ET.

The WeatherRadar shows the same low-pressure system that brought rounds of severe weather across the Plains on Sunday and Monday, affecting parts of the Deep South through the Great Lakes on Election Day Tuesday. It is finally on the move as a high-pressure system seems to be moving eastward. This is the same high-pressure system we closely monitor regarding where Rafael would 'escape' northward. More about this is in the tropical section further down in this article.

Storms will be disorganized, but there is still a chance of some turning severe across Louisiana through southeastern Arkansas. Central Wisconsin is another region where there could be disorganized severe storms. Both highlighted areas could experience isolated severe storms with gusty winds and a tornado or two. There are lower chances due to colder air filtering through from Iowa to Wisconsin compared to more storm activity probable across the South, where the environment continues to be muggy and unstable.

Temperatures across the Southeast will be near or at record warmth. Cities like Biloxi, Missi., Crestview, Fla., Meridian, Missi., and Tallahassee, Fla., are having their warmest day on record or second warmest November 5th on record. Atlanta will have temperatures in the upper 70s, which places the city highs today in the top 10 warmest on record.

The same system that caused strong gusts over the Northwest brings snow across the Northern Plains and Rockies on Tuesday. Drive safely to precincts as heavy snow could fall from early morning hours in Montana through western Colorado. Denver will likely stay with rain showers, mainly falling in the afternoon and switching to snow in the evening through Thursday.

Plenty of moisture will be moving northward over Florida this week. The winds are shifting and will arrive from the south-southeast. This moisture will take over Florida and Georgia, as we do not expect the same cold front moving across the Central Plains to remain strong enough to push through. Therefore, the moisture wins and increases the rain and storm activity starting on Election Day across Florida. Take your umbrella with you if you are going to the voting booth and track the storm in our WeatherRadar.

The National Hurricane Center shows Rafael gaining a better structure, and the official track shows it gaining hurricane status as it passes the Cayman Islands on Tuesday late afternoon. Western Cuba will deal with many tropical torrential downpours and hurricane-force winds. Rafael slows as it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. A high-pressure system, which has been dominating Florida and the Southeast, will start to break, but before it does, it will put the breaks on Rafael. Rafael will move northward once this high opens up a path or break. The big question remains as to where exactly this will happen. The NHC shows Rafael could be making landfall on Saturday between Louisiana and Alabama, but we must monitor it closely. Any delay in the high "breaking" would slow down Rafael even more, and the uncertainty about its final landfall increases.

It's never too early to prepare for the winter season! Is your blizzard kit in order?