Hurricane Season forecast: 40% chance for near-average activity

We're five days away from the official start of hurricane season and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its forecast, calling for a near-average hurricane season.

There is a 40 percent chance for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to be near-average with 12-17 named storms, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, and out of those, 1 to 4 could become major hurricanes.

There is a 30 percent chance for the season to stay above average and a 30 percent chance for it to stay below-average.

El Niño has a high likelihood of coming on strong for the late summer/early fall season. There are signs that El Niño is already present with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific.

As we often mention, tropical storm formation is a complex recipe. El Niño could bring an increase in wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, which would limit tropical activity formation. But wind shear fluctuates throughout the season. There could be times when low shear or no shear is present, allowing a tropical wave to develop further. We know that the warm temperatures will be there, available, waiting for storms to feed off from, but the big question remains, will the other ingredients come to play together?

That´s a question that no atmospheric scientists can answer this far ahead. But we do know that tropical systems will develop. Now it is time to prepare, as we do not know where exactly a tropical storm or hurricane could make landfall. We hope for all fish storms, but there is lots of real estate and lots of population at risk. Get ready for the season ahead of time, while there is plenty of time, and avoid the rush and the masses.

“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” stated FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell.