La Niña 2024 Forecast: Global Weather Shifts and Increased Atlantic Hurricane Risk

The likelihood of a La Niña event later this year is increasing, signaling potential shifts in global weather patterns and a heightened risk of Atlantic hurricanes.

Long-range data suggest we are on the brink of entering the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. In simpler terms, this means we can expect cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

Should these predictions hold true, we could be gearing up for another period of intense global weather activity, like what was observed during the last La Niña cycle from 2020 to 2023.

Although each La Niña and El Niño event is unique, they tend to follow a pattern. La Niña often results in increased rainfall for regions like Australia, more Atlantic hurricanes impacting the United States, and diverse effects across Africa.

For instance, during the La Niña conditions from 2020 to 2023, Australia experienced significantly more rainfall, leading to as many as eight major floods. These floods caused billions in damage and claimed numerous lives.

In the U.S., hurricane activity spiked. The 2020 season, under the influence of La Niña, saw 31 tropical cyclones, 14 of which intensified into hurricanes, including seven major hurricanes. This made it the most active hurricane season on record.

The subsequent years, 2021 and 2022, also recorded above-average hurricane activities. Despite being less active, these seasons contributed to the U.S. incurring over $120 billion in damages, making it the fourth and third, respectively, costliest period in history, trailing just behind the devastating 2005 season marked by Hurricane Katrina.

In Africa, the impact of La Niña varies. West Africa tends to experience wetter conditions and a higher likelihood of floods, while East Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa, faces worsened drought conditions. This region suffered its most severe drought in 70 years during the last La Niña phase.