Tropical Storm Milton formed on Saturday morning. The official track shows a hurricane making landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

The initial forecast called for a low chance of development, as the models were picking off a tropical wave moving over the Western Caribbean. However, as always mentioned, the models are often unreliable without well-defined low pressure. Milton formed from the remnants of a low-pressure system that came from the Pacific and crossed southern Mexico—this is something the models never picked up, as they were picking up the western Caribbean disturbance instead.

The National Hurricane Center notes a Category 3 hurricane (at least) making landfall between Southwest Florida and the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday morning. This would be the fifth land falling hurricane on the U.S. mainland this season. Areas from the Big Bend through the Southwest need to start preparing, and we understand that this comes when you are still healing from Helene. Please take this seriously. If Milton were to make landfall just north of Tampa Bay, the surge would be catastrophic, and there would be extensive power outages all across Central Florida.

Southwest Florida needs to prepare for a significant storm surge, considering that if the track shifts south, there could be more storm surge. For Southeast Florida, under the current track, the worst day will be Wednesday, with winds and rains picking up on Tuesday. There will likely be tropical storm-force winds with gusts above 74 mph (hurricane strength). If the track shifts south, then higher winds would be experienced. If the track shifts northward (north of Tampa), fewer hurricane gusts could be experienced. There is still the chance for power outages across the southern portion of the peninsula.

Milton will gradually strengthen, but it is ultimately heading toward Florida, and a west-to-east movement is a very bad scenario for the West Coast. Also, considering that the dirty side of the system, the one with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, will cover much of South Florida, over highly populated areas, and a Central Florida landfall would put millions at risk. The expected rain is between 6 to 10 inches across the Peninsula. Highly populated areas across Southeast Florida will deal with heavy rains and flash flood risk early next week.

Please take this weekend to make sure you have your supplies topped off. If you have one and have not tested your generator, do so this weekend. Get board games for the kids, and make sure to get portable power banks to keep them charged.

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