Possible scenarios: Tropical system brews, eyes on Florida

There are a few waves out in the far and central Atlantic and Franklin that will be slowing down north of the Caribbean this weekend. But our eyes should be on the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico, as parts of west Florida through the Panhandle could see the threat of a tropical system early next week. Let’s discuss.

The tropical wave cooking in the western Caribbean will take its sweet time … cooking. The system is being held back near the Yucatan through Saturday, but the pattern across the U.S. gets moving from west to east late this weekend. This will allow for this system to be pulled northward and east as a frontal boundary moves through the southeastern U.S. This is the reason why we forecast this system to move toward Florida next week.

All weekend we will be monitoring its evolution as it slowly moves close to or over the Yucatan Peninsula. The soonest a system could develop would be late Sunday. But there are also hints that this system will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, nameless, and move toward some point along the western of the Big Bend region of Florida still not organized and perhaps be named as it comes close to it by Tuesday. The next name on the list is Idalia.

Regardless, Florida can expect an increase in shower activity next week. What is hard to pinpoint at the moment is which regions of Florida will get the most rain as it will greatly depend on how close to Florida it comes.

Residents from the Florida Panhandle through southwest Florida should monitor this system closely. Then the Carolinas’ coasts need to be especially aware as this system could come close by the end of next week, just in time to finish August.

If the system were to come on or closer to the Florida Panhandle it would likely mean that most of its heaviest precipitation would remain over the Gulf of Mexico, with a few bands affecting the Peninsula. Of course, the west coast will also have to watch out for strong currents, surf, and storm surge. The Panhandle will experience the strongest winds, rain, and storm surge.

If the system were to move toward the Big Bend, then the Tampa Bay region would be impacted by stronger surge. There will be a retraction of the Bay and then a big impulse of storm surge as the storm moves closer. Then heavy rain bands, with tornadic embedded storms and strong winds will be affecting North and Central Florida.

If it is just north of Tampa Bay, the largest surge will affect the Bay to the south. Strongest winds too across the same area. Large rain amounts for Central Florida and diminishing amounts for South Florida, with embedded thunderstorms that could be tornadic.

Such landfall would be possible if the cold front pushing the system would speed up just in time to give it this nudge to the right or east. Depending on the strength, this system would bring the strongest storm surge and winds to Southwest Florida, and heavy rainbands would affect South Florida and the Keys.

Although this system will take all weekend to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, there are plenty of warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, August Gulf of Mexico waters are typically warm, but they are abnormally hot this year (as in many recent years). A good point to remember is that this system will move fast north or northeastward, once it starts moving, so at least its time for intensification will be limited on this aspect. Regardless, this system can intensify into a hurricane.

We will bring you an update early on Sunday morning or before if needed. Our Task Force will be activated next week as we follow this tropical system’s footsteps, bringing you prompt updates from our team of meteorologists.

**This same information can be seen in Spanish, written by our bilingual meteorologists if your phone is set to Spanish and using our app too. Tell your family and friends who only speak Spanish so that they can also be informed and stay safe, please.**