Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 threatens southern Texas and Mexico, flash flooding

As forecast, the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico became a “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.” This is the label that the National Hurricane Center gives to storms that are not yet fully developed but are close to land and they must issue advisories. Heavy rains combined with the severely dry ground could lead to flash floodings.

Late Friday afternoon, Hurricane Hunter investigated the system and although it did not find a well-defined center of circulation, it was better organized, and it was expected to gain a bit more strength as it moved toward northeastern Mexico.

Tropical storm warnings are posted for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas as tropical storm conditions are expected to affect this area on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The tropical system will be making landfall Saturday evening over the northern portion of Tamaulipas, close to the Texas border. Then it will quickly lose strength as it crosses the border into southern Texas and pass over McAllen and subsequently lose its tropical characteristics, becoming a remnant low.

Heavy rainfall will be the main threat. Flash floods are possible from northern Veracruz through Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. Across southern Texas, the rain will remain heavy through Sunday morning producing local flash floods and streams overflowing.

Across northern Mexico and southern Texas, rainfall will range between 1 to 2 inches, but there are some isolated spots that could receive up to 4 inches.

Although this might not seem extreme, this area received lots of rain recently, with another tropical disturbance moving over the area. This area was under a severe drought at the beginning of the month, which doesn’t allow the rain to drain properly, therefore the ground acts more like cement. Conditions improved after last weekend's tropical disturbance but continue to be severely dry in some areas.

Please stay away from flooded roads. Turn around, don’t drown.