Severe outbreak in our sights?

Weather forecasting has come a long way over the last several decades, and with that comes the ability to be on the lookout for a possible severe weather outbreak next week – even 5 and 6 days out.

Long and medium-range models have been showing the possibility for a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest and Mid-South next week for some time. Although we’re still five to six days out, we’re keeping a close eye on the situation.

The system coming together to form a severe weather outbreak is very complex but not unusual for this time of year as we begin switching into spring severe mode and temperature swings become more common.

A deep upper-level trough is forecast to dive southward, meeting up with the southern jet stream, which will drive this severe weather event in the higher levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, a low-pressure storm system and associated cold front will initiate the severe storms, first from eastern Oklahoma through Chicago, then into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys as well as the Deep South.

On the eastern side of the cold front, temperatures and dew points will be much above average for late February. High temperatures in the 60s are expected as far north as Michigan, with 70s and 80s peppering the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains on Tuesday, with those warmer 60s reaching the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

On the western side of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees colder! The bigger the difference in temperature along this frontal boundary, the more energy this storm system will have, which could produce several severe storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Here's a preview of the warmth on the way starting Monday.

It’s still too early to see where exactly the storms will fire, but it’s never too early to have the info on your radar. Places like Little Rock, Ark., St. Louis, Mo., and Chicago will need to keep a close eye on the sky Tuesday afternoon and evening.

By Wednesday, a larger population is included, and those in places like Jackson, Miss., Memphis, Tenn., and Louisville, Kent., could see the severe storms.

All hazards, including heavy rainfall, hail, damaging gusts, and even tornadoes, are on the table at this time. As we get closer to this event, we will be able to pinpoint the highest-risk areas.

For now, make sure you have at least three ways to receive a weather warning and an emergency plan should you or your family be affected by the dangerous storms. Weather & Radar meteorologists are paying close attention to this situation and will provide frequent updates leading up to Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week.