Snow or bust this weekend?

We’ve got our eyes on a potentially large winter storm that will impact the eastern half later this week into the weekend. Many will want to keep a close eye on their local forecast for snow, ice, and rain chances.

A low-pressure system, currently pushing into the Southwest Coast, will make its way east into Arizona and New Mexico by Thursday before it organizes more as it approaches the southern Plains Thursday evening. As it moves through heavy rain and mountain snow are in the forecast.

It’s winter so we are seeing the rain/snow line set-up for the southern and central Plains. Guidance shows that northern Oklahoma through Kansas will be primed for snowfall while those south of that line through Texas get heavy rain.

On Friday, heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to sweep across the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley before the low pressure reorganizes. An isolated severe thunderstorm risk is in place for the central Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Mobile, Ala., and just west of Tallahassee in the Florida Panhandle.

A marginal risk for excessive rainfall – a level one out of four – is in place from southeast Texas through the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia Friday. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially since residents here are already dealing with nuisance downpours today, saturating the ground.

As this storm progresses east-northeast, plentiful moisture will be tapped into sending rain and snow as far north as the Midwest starting early Saturday. A mix of snow and ice is possible along the rain/snow line in the southern Appalachians and northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic.

Much of the Southeast and Carolinas, except for the higher elevations, can expect heavy rain, but the higher in elevation you go and the more northward you go, the more wintry precipitation you will see.

It is tough to say at this time where the rain/snow line sets up in western Virginia and Maryland as this storm evolves. It is very possible on Saturday that things start out as snow west of Interstate 95 in Virginia and Maryland and then change over to rain by Saturday evening. We will know more as the time draws near.

Due to the complexity of the system and the set-up of the rain/snow line, those in the lower Ohio Valley could see a mix of everything from rain to snow to ice.

On Sunday, when the low pressure is making its way into the Atlantic, northwesterly flow will allow for snow across much of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Gusty winds cannot be ruled out along the Northeast Coast either as this storm tightens.

Weather & Radar meteorologists will be monitoring this storm and be bringing frequent updates.