It’s spring… and the weather knows it! After a mostly quiet weekend, this week brings the chance for several rounds of severe weather across the South. The threat increases tonight over Texas, then moves to the Deep South on Tuesday. On Wednesday the threat for severe storms will be mainly focused over the Southeast. Overall, more than 80 million people will be at risk of severe weather at some point this week.

Texas will start off the week with very muggy conditions, especially over the eastern half of the state. There is an enhanced chance for severe storms to develop late Monday night into Tuesday morning. An enhanced threat is level 3 on a scale of 1 through 5. Major metropolitan cities like Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Allington, and San Antonio are at risk of having large hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes, of which a few could be strong. Austin and College Station's risk was upgraded to a moderate risk (4 out of 5 on the severity scale) around noon on Tuesday, highlighting that severe storms could be stronger in this region which could bring numerous tornadoes, some could be strong as well as large hail and damaging winds.

San Antonio through Pasadena, Texas, and the southern fringe of Oklahoma is under a slight risk of severe storms, level 2 of 5, as a couple of tornadoes are possible in addition to very large hail and damaging winds.

The other risk that will be present through Wednesday will be flooding. From eastern Texas through northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, most of Mississippi to western Alabama there could be more than 4 inches of rain falling with several areas receiving higher amounts. Please avoid flooded roads, even those you may frequently transit.

As the western region of Texas is protected by very dry air in place, plenty of moisture is taking over from Central Texas eastward. There is also lots of heat that has been prepping the atmosphere for today’s severe weather risk.

We advise the residents across the eastern half of the Lone Star state to not let their guard down. There could be some thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, but the atmosphere will be the most unstable after 7 p.m. So those first few thunderstorms will not really be it or the most severe.

The evening will be packed with storms, some of which will turn severe and very dangerous. The storms will be moving in a training motion, aligning mainly from south to north with several clusters of storms moving to the east. This line of storms will be moving rather slowly. Expect the threat of severe weather to still be present across southeast Texas throughout sunrise on Tuesday, while conditions will no longer be severe across north Texas, and skies will be clearing across north Texas.

The severe risk should clear Texas by noon on Tuesday, but the same line of storms will be affecting the Deep South as it moves east on Tuesday afternoon into the evening.