Monsoon season is just around the corner. See how this year’s outlook compares to the highly active 2021 season.

This week, most of the Desert Southwest will feel the effects of an intense heat wave sending temperatures soaring above 115 degrees. Luckily, extreme heat is not the only thing the summer brings.

June 15 marks the start of the North American Monsoon, which is characterized as a seasonal increase in precipitation over parts of the Southwest, including southwest California, Arizona New Mexico and the Lower Great Basin.

Much like its Indian cousin in Asia, the North American monsoon is fueled by increasing humidity that funnels in from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico as southerly winds begin to take over.

The monsoonal rains are crucial for these desert areas as they help to restore water reservoirs, mitigate wildfire spread, and even help keep temperatures at bay due to increased cloud cover. However, too much of a good thing can be bad. In 2021, Arizona experienced its 9th wettest monsoon season since 1895, resulting in dangerous and even deadly flash flooding.

For 2022, we expect equal chances for near, below, or above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest, with a slight lean towards above-normal rainfall for most of southern and central Arizona, including Phoenix.

If we compare the temperature outlook for this summer, there is a clearer signal that the Southwest is in store for an unusually hot summer.