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The Dreaded Loop Current: How It Could Turn Helene Into a Major Hurricane

11:00 PM
September 23, 2024

Major hurricane catalyst
The dreaded Loop Current

If you've been following the forecast, you likely already know that Helene is poised to become a major player this week. However, one factor that could greatly influence its development more than anything else is the Loop Current.

Currently, the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico is running at record-high temperatures, between 87 to 89 degrees Fahrenheit, about 3 to 4 degrees above average. This unusually warm water could serve as a powerful fuel source, providing ample energy for Helene to intensify rapidly later this week. See the forecast from our meteorologists.

graphic from the universtiy of miami showing ocean heat content ahead to hurricane helenegraphic from the universtiy of miami showing ocean heat content anomaly ahead to hurricane helene
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The graphic shows ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 2024. Image courtesy of UM/Rosenstiel

As Helene moves toward the Gulf, it is forecast to pass directly over the Loop Current—a warm oceanic current that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico and loops around before exiting through the Florida Straits.

These exceptionally warm waters, which extend deep below the surface, resist cooling from storm-induced upwelling. This allows the hurricane to continuously tap into the high ocean heat content, providing crucial energy for its strengthening and potentially triggering rapid intensification.

Expert analysis

“The ocean heat content in the Gulf is extremely high, particularly inside the Loop Current, which future-Helene will pass over,” says Hurricane Climatologist Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami.

Rapid intensification explainedread more

With the Loop Current supplying enhanced moisture and ideal conditions, Helene has the potential to become a much more formidable hurricane as it progresses.

Federico Di Catarina
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