Tropical moisture arrives: Florida to be soaked

Deep tropical moisture will ramp up in intensity next week on the Florida Peninsula. Some areas could receive around 12 inches, which is bad for already-soaked ground.

The same low pressure that could develop into a tropical system is forecast to bring many heavy rains starting next week. This weekend, the Peninsula of Florida will start to notice an increased chance of showers and storms, but the bulk of the precipitation will arrive next week.

The disturbance will enter the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, with a medium chance of developing into a tropical system as of Friday. But wind shear could put a lid on its chances of growing into a full-fledged tropical system. Deep tropical moisture will move onto Florida, dramatically increasing the flood risk from North Florida through South Florida next week, regardless of whether this system gets named. A front moving from the north will also aid the moisture channel in moving toward Florida.

The heaviest precipitation is expected across South Florida between Sunday and Wednesday. At the same time, much of Central Florida and the southern edge of North Florida will receive rounds of heavy rains and likely a second burst of deep tropical moisture between Tuesday and Friday. Overall, we are forecasting between 10 and 12 inches of rain for South Florida and 8 and 10 inches for much of Central Florida, with rain totals running between Saturday, October 5, and October 12.

Make sure to plan carefully. An event like this will produce flash flooding that can be deadly and damage property and businesses. If you have plans outdoors, make sure to have a secondary plan indoors. Keep in mind that if a system does form, even if it is a depression, the risk for storm surge increases for the West Coast. This wouldn't be good news for the West Coast.