Tropical Storm Nicole: Track shifts, organizing & intensifying

It’s a rare tropical storm, but Nicole has Florida in its sight! Tropical storm conditions are expected to start for parts of Florida's East coast as soon as Wednesday (early) morning, and it will be a doozy for much of the Peninsula.

Nicole is set to be a storm that will impact the Sunshine State, and there are all kinds of threats with this system. Nicole has started to move west and with this turn, its effects will start to be felt across the east coast and conditions will be deteriorating quickly for inland portions during the day on Wednesday.

The 4 p.m. advisory shows that Nicole will be traveling over warm waters (between 80 and 82 degrees) as it approaches Florida. Nicole has plenty of time to intensify and is expected to reach category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph.

Evacuation orders and curfews have been for some east coast counties. Please check your county's orders and evacuate if you are ordered to do so.

First, the immediate coast will be at risk of coastal flooding. Easterly winds start to push toward Florida today and continue to at least Thursday when the storm is scheduled to make a northerly turn, but by this time it would be overland. Expect at least 48 hours of strong winds coming ashore from the landfall point northward. This will create coastal flooding that is being exacerbated by the higher-than-normal high tides because of the full moon.

East Central Florida through northeast Florida could experience storm surge up to 5 feet. Coastal residents should follow local evacuation orders. If you are in a warned area and live in a mobile home in Central or North Florida, you should highly consider going to a more secure structure, like a family or friend's home or shelter.

Due to its path, and turns, Florida will be under numerous rainbands, with varying directions. The most worrisome issue about the rain is that the largest amounts of rain are expected to affect parts of Central Florida, especially areas east of Orlando that experienced over 12 inches of rain a bit over a month ago due to Hurricane Ian. It’s not going to take much for flooding in these areas to occur. Nicole could drop between 3 and 5 inches across central and north Florida, with some isolated areas receiving 7 inches. Flash flooding will be likely. Rivers will be rising quickly, nearby residents should be aware of their flood levels.

It's a large system… strong winds will affect much of the state. Hurricane warning in effect from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida. Hurricane-force winds are expected to arrive by Wednesday afternoon or early evening.

Nicole is a large system as continues to grow. Tropical storm force winds extend over 380 miles from its center. The strongest winds are to the right side of the storm in reference to direction. Even though the strongest winds will be felt north of where Nicole makes landfall, residents to the south cannot underestimate the winds as Nicole will be intensifying hurricane status as it inches closer to Florida.

Tuesday is a day to prepare. The winds will increase rapidly over the east coast late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Ideally, Florida residents in warned areas should be done with preparations by sunset on Tuesday or at the very latest by early morning on Wednesday.