Tropical update: Better chance for a storm late week

As we mentioned on Monday, the chances of having a named tropical system this upcoming weekend are increasing. The tropical wave traveling westward toward the Caribbean now has a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical system.

The tropical disturbance is relatively large but still very disorganized. During the work week, it will be working hard against a swath of dry air. By Friday, it could be near or at the northeastern Caribbean Islands. We are closely monitoring the Bermuda high (the semi-permanent high-pressure system over the northern Atlantic) as it will be guiding the storm west if it strengthens and moves more east.

Keep in mind that currently, we are not able to know exactly if this system could impact the United States as there is nothing organized now. Also, it could travel as a tropical wave over the Caribbean Islands, and land interaction would hinder its development. But first, it must survive the dry air. So there are many variants at play this week.

The other tropical wave, this one located just south of Cabo Verde Islands is likely to take a more northern component. This will shift the storm and keep it over water. It has a low chance of developing within the next five days, and it is likely that it won’t even receive a name as there is plenty of dry air and is being choked by a plume of Saharan dust exiting the African desert.

We are about halfway to where the average is this time of the season, regarding named storms, named storm days, and hurricanes.

On average, by this date, we would be on our 9thor 10th named storm, and four of those would have been hurricanes. So far this year there have been 5 named systems are two have been hurricanes.

There has been a persistent strip of dry air centered over the Atlantic that has really cut the chances of development for several systems. We’ve also had a more elongated jetstream, which has sheared the systems. This means that the strong winds above have not allowed systems to continue their natural building cycle.

It is important to remember that the season runs through November 30, and it only takes one storm to hit to make it a devastating season. Please have a plan.