Tropical update: Bret enters Caribbean, Cindy makes turn.

As Tropical Storm Bret officially enters the Caribbean, Cindy follows, and another tropical wave follows Cindy. And although it is not rare to see tropical systems in June, what is rare is to see them so far east aligned one after the other this time of the year.

Tropical Storm Bret is now officially in the Caribbean after passing near St. Vincent late Thursday evening. Bret’s center is over the Caribbean, but all the precipitation and some winds are lagging over a big portion of the Lesser Antilles as seen on our WeatherRadar. We forecast Bret to continue moving west and encounter lots of wind shear, which will start to put a big dent in this already messy system.

By Saturday afternoon Bret should have downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and then shortly after turn into a broader area of low pressure or an open tropical wave. The great news is that Bret will stay away from the bigger Caribbean islands like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, and from the northern coast of South America.

Nonetheless, Bret, or its remnants, will bring rough seas across the central Caribbean, with small craft advisories in effect through Saturday and a high risk of rip currents for the southern coasts throughout the weekend.

In contrast to Bret, Cindy will continue with tropical storm status throughout the weekend, and it will not be moving into the Caribbean. Instead, Cindy will start making a turn to the northwest later Friday and continue in this direction through early next week. It is forecast to move steadily at about 15 mph, which will place Cindy well north of Hispaniola by early Tuesday morning.

At this same point, Cindy will really be fighting against strong wind shear which will win the battle and Cindy will lose its tropical storm characteristic and downgrade into a depression or tropical wave as it moves well east of the Bahamas.

In the long term, like 7 days out, Cindy could regenerate into a tropical storm as it comes near Bermudas. We will monitor this closely as there is still lots of time and gray areas between now and then.

This far eastern tropical wave is engulfed in lots of dry and dusty air. There is not really a chance for it to develop.