Tropical update: Nothing this weekend, maybe next week?

It’s been a very quiet week across the tropical Atlantic. Are we shutting off hurricane season?

Well, not quiet. There are still about 4 weeks left, officially, of hurricane season. October and November are months when tropical systems usually spin up closer to “home”, meaning closer to the United States. This means that we should be extra aware as if a system forms we would have less time to prepare, especially if you live near the coast.

For about a week the America model (GFS) has shown a tropical storm forming over the Central Caribbean, south of the Hispaniola. The European model has not captured this in any of its recent runs. If something forms, it would be toward the middle of next week.

If we look at history, October is a month where Caribbean storms are common. In fact about 65 percent of the late October Novembers under La Niña, there have been impactful Caribbean storms.

Enjoy the weekend. There is nothing tropical that will impact the Americas this weekend. We will keep an eye out for you and keep you posted.