Tropical update: Radio silent tropics, extreme heat

The tropics really got quiet as that area over the far northeastern Atlantic has no chance to develop. What are we monitoring later this month? Glad you asked! Let’s talk about it.

The tropics go radio silent this week after the non-tropical area that we were monitoring near the Azores Islands by Europe lost its chances of acquiring some tropical characteristics. There is no chance that this system will turn into a named storm.

Moving west, and closer to home, there is a plume of Saharan Dust located over the eastern Caribbean. This one is not only turning up the heat in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, where some heat indices as high as 125 F were recorded on Tuesday, but this dust will also suppress any chance for tropical development.

Saharan Dust plumes arrive more typically during the month of June and July to the Caribbean from Africa by strong trade winds bringing them over. They tend to bring sinking air, which combined with fine dust particles tend to warm up the air a lot!

Southern Cuba and Hispaniola continue with some strong rains, as there is a trough in this region and a low-pressure system located to the south aiding storms in the area. Dust will continue traveling west and will put an end to the dense storms, calming the weather and increasing the temperatures over the Hispaniola, southeastern Cuba, and the southern Bahamas for the second half of the week.

Long-range models are still hinting at the chance of tropical formation after the 18th of June. There will be more favorable conditions over the western or northwestern Caribbean as wind shear will decrease and there will be lots of rising motion in the atmosphere. Of course, this is more than a week out, and the exact spot might change, but overall, you should keep in mind that as we have sinking air now suppressing storm formation, this pattern will flip which will aid storm formation.

We will continue to monitor closely and bring you daily updates.