Tropical update: Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the central Atlantic and will continue moving west toward the Caribbean. How strong will it get and who's at risk? Let's discuss this.

Tropical Depression Three has strengthened into Tropical Storm Bret, our second tropical storm of the season. According to the latest observations, the storm is producing sustained winds up to 40 mph and will likely continue to intensify into a hurricane as it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles.

By the end of the week, hurricane conditions, including strong winds, flooding rain, and storm surge, are expected to affect communities of the eastern Caribbean. However, given the large uncertainty in the track an strength of this storm, it's still too early to talk about specific areas and the magnitude of impacts. Folks from Lesser Antilles to Hispaniola, including Puerto Rico need to pay close attention to this system. Tune in tomorrow morning for the next update and additional information about Bret and another tropical disturbance we are monitoring.

The National Hurricane Center is initiating advisories for Tropical Depression Three. This means that Invest 92L has now officially become Tropical Depression 3. Parts of the Lesser Antilles will likely be under a tropical storm watch, especially the northern tier. More to come at 11 a.m. once the advisory is released.

The tropical wave we have been monitoring since last week has been officially labeled as Invest 92L. This just means that this area can now be officially investigated by hurricane hunters.

Of course, this wave is still in the central Atlantic, and hurricane hunters will wait to investigate it as it is too far out, and satellites are being used to see how this wave is gradually organizing. Currently, there are no hurricane hunter planes scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. Regardless, this wave could become a tropical depression or storm later Monday or Tuesday.

Invest 92L continues moving west between 15 and 20 mph. It is very likely that this system will prompt the issuance of tropical advisories across the far eastern Caribbean islands.

As the system moves over the central Caribbean, there are conditions that will allow it to gather more organization and strengthen. Wind shear is rather slow, and water temperatures are plenty warm, feeding the system. The next name on the list is Bret.

Remember, as we discussed last week, without a well-defined center of circulation, models do not have correct data input for accurate output. Yes, we know that the general pattern allows this system to move westward and will likely enter the Caribbean, but exactly where it might make that turn northward is yet unknown.

We should wait until the center is well defined and allow this data to be input into the models, allowing new runs to get the timing of a possible turn. Analyzing the pattern and parameters, this will likely happen after early Wednesday.

This is a tropical wave we have been monitoring since last week. We knew it was going to take several days, and we would be talking about it for at least 10 days, as the wave emerged from Africa. As we noted, the wind shear is low over the central Atlantic, but it is expected to remain high over the central Caribbean.

This could be good news for the big Caribbean islands if the system doesn’t make that northward turn. Aside from any land (and big mountains), this system might encounter, there will likely be strong shear hindering the system from intensifying.

For now, we suggest the islands of the Lesser Antilles, specifically the northern tier of this arc, be on alert for a system possibly threatening by Thursday or Friday.

There is another tropical wave following the track of Invest 92L. This tropical wave is located south-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands. There is a medium chance for this tropical wave to develop within the next 7 days as it travels west between 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. There is plenty of time to monitor this system.