Tropical wave on the move: who is at most risk?

A tropical wave touches the northeast Caribbean, increasing showers. This is the same wave that could develop late this weekend near the Bahamas.

The tropical disturbance we have been monitoring since last Friday has finally made its way out of deep dry air, leading to more shower and thunderstorm activity erupting. This wave will continue to increase the chance for rain and higher-than-normal rainfall across the eastern Caribbean Islands, including Puerto Rico.

This wave will continue to travel west-northwest and the chance for tropical development will grow with time, also increasing rain and storm chances across the Greater Antilles. It is not likely that this system will receive a name this week. If it were to happen, the soonest would be late weekend. The next name on the list is Debby.

The Bahamas, Southeast and Florida need to closely watch the evolution of this tropical wave. Regardless you can expect high rainfall across the Bahamas this weekend. For Florida, you can expect regular summertime storm activity, and depending on proximity, there could be storms in the forecast. More if closer, less if farther away, especially if this wave continues so disorganized as it stays east of Florida.

The Carolinas should pay closer attention to this system as it is becoming more likely that this system will curve and affect the Carolinas more directly. We are closely monitoring this system and will continue to bring you updates through the weekend.