What does it mean? Highs chance for a La Niña summer, prolonged stay

Climate models are signaling that La Niña could be present in the summer and early fall 2022, which would include the most active months of hurricane season.

The Climate Prediction Center together with the National Weather Service and the Institute for International Research on Climate and Society released a statement about the chance of La Niña continuing during the northern hemisphere's summer.

With exactly a 59 percent probability that La Niña will be present from June to August and between a 50 and 55 percent probability that it will continue during the fall.

Scientists have been keeping an eye on sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific during the month of March. It continues to show that the temperatures remain below average and within the range for La Niña to continue to be present. Temperatures from the surface to 656 feet depth also remain below average.

If La Niña remains in effect through the summer, it would mean that much of North America would continue to experience warmer and drier conditions than usual for this time of year, especially across the southern half of the United States.

For the West, this could mean a drier than normal summer, which combined with warmer than usual temperatures could mean big trouble, like more drought and more wildfires. For the southern Central Plains, including Texas, and the Southeast, this could mean a hotter than usual summer and expanding drought.

La Niña during the summer months, especially between August and October means that there is just one more ingredient in the hurricane recipe, this ingredient is crucial and means trouble for the Atlantic Basin.

When La Niña is present, wind shear tends to decrease over the Atlantic. More relaxed winds aloft mean that storms can develop more freely, without obstacles. Wind shear disrupts the natural cycle of tropical storm development, making it harder for storms to develop or intensify.

For the Pacific, the opposite is true. Tropical storm activity tends to decrease when there is a La Niña. This is mostly because sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual and there is overall more sinking air, which prevents storms from forming.