2024 predictions: Will this summer be a hot one?

2024 is projected to be another record-breaker of a year. How much merit does that statement hold?

The year is already off to a warm start, with April 2024 coming in as the 11th month in a row to be the hottest on record. 2024 may be the first year to hit 1.5°C of warming (relative to the global above-average temperature from 1991-2020). From February 2023 to January 2024, we reached this threshold, though it wasn't for the entire calendar year of 2023.

In short, no. We can look at overall trends for regions during a given month in the near future, but that will just be an average for the whole month and doesn't account for any brief but extreme swings or fluctuations.

For example, we can say that July 2024 is looking above-average for much of the U.S., particularly the Desert Southwest. However, that could just be a few days of hot weather that skew the average, followed by roughly around or below-average temperatures.

Across the U.S., it currently looks like June, July, and August are all trending above average in terms of temperature, with a greater focus on the southwest and northeast CONUS as hot spots.

In terms of pressure and precipitation, which are also important factors in regulating temperatures, June looks more low-pressure dominated, with around average rainfall expected across the eastern CONUS.

July is forecast to see above-average rainfall in the south, with drier, high-pressure-dominated conditions in the west. August looks to see generally drier and more settled weather across much of the U.S.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate phenomenon crucial in determining global weather and temperature patterns. We're currently in an ENSO neutral phase with an El Niño warning, forecast to remain neutral for the start of the summer at least. There are signs of La Niña possible later, with a greater risk from August in particular.

When El Niño is in play, higher global temperatures are generally expected, but with a neutral phase, it may not have too much impact. That being said, despite El Niño continuing to weaken in the eastern equatorial Pacific in recent months, high air and ocean temperatures have been persisting regardless.