We are monitoring a tropical wave with a medium chance of development by early next week. Let’s discuss what is happening.

Hurricane forecasts continue to call for a hyperactive season. There have been 4 named storms in the Atlantic and if forecasts verify, we would have at least 18 more to go. The season’s busiest weeks are upon us, usually over 87 percent of hurricanes happen between mid-August through mid-October. The water temperatures continue to be above average across the tropical Atlantic and La Niña is still set to make a comeback in the coming month or so, which would reduce wind shear and not disrupt the formation of a tropical system.

The tropical wave we are monitoring is over 3000 miles away from Florida, between Africa and the Caribbean. At first glance, this system could remind you of Debby, but it is different, and there is not as much dry air attacking it on the way as was the case with Debby. It is possible that this system could become a tropical depression early next week as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean.

There are still many unknowns, more in the long term as models diverge in intensity and track even further. Keep in mind that this system is very far away, and on average it would take a system over 10 days to reach the continental U.S., at this point. We will continue to bring you updates about this system next week.