Atlantic Hurricane season - Neutral ENSO: How does this impact hurricanes?

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact the favorability of hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Between its three phases, positive (El Niño), negative (La Niña) or neutral, Atlantic hurricane season activity can vary! But what does a neutral season look like?

When El Niño is active, hurricane activity can be lessened due to strong vertical wind shear, hindering organization. La Niña promotes hurricane activity due to weaker wind shear and more atmospheric instability.

During an ENSO neutral phase, we can expect an 'either or' season. Either it will be busy or not! The outcome of the season mostly depends on the localized and common conditions it takes for hurricanes to form; water temperature, local shear patterns, moisture availability, etc.

To compare, 2005 was an ENSO-neutral year but brought us a memorable and busy hurricane season with 28 named systems and 15 at hurricane status. But 2013 was also a neutral year, only having 2 hurricanes and 14 named systems altogether. The hurricane development in these two seasons depended on the more localized conditions.

This 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be above-average. This is due to the warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, a northward shift of the African monsoon and, of course, a neutral ENSO not impacting vertical wind shear.