Breakfast Brief: Storms shift south, Monsoon flood risk

A stubborn and dangerous heat wave persists across the South Plains, while summer showers and thunderstorms affect the southwest and southeast U.S.

A cold front moving south across the Southeast will trigger showers and thunderstorms in the Deep South and Mid-Atlantic today, with the strongest storms likely developing in the afternoon. There is a low-end chance (threat level 1 out of 5) of isolated severe storms confined to the eastern Carolinas.

Another area of potential severe thunderstorms exists across the north-central and central U.S. today. Cities like Rapid City, S. Dak., North Platte, Neb. and Dickinson, N. Dak, could see severe thunderstorms with gusts up to 80 mph, hail exceeding 2.5 inches in diameter, and tornadoes.

Deep subtropical moisture remains over parts of the western U.S., fueling showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners region and portions of the Central and Southern Rocky Mountains. With ample moisture and already saturated soils from previous showers, the flash flood threat is heightened, particularly from western New Mexico to western Colorado.

A tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms continues to move east across the Caribbean this week, while a second tropical wave tracks across the south-central North Atlantic Ocean. Due to dry, dusty air from the Sahara, both systems have a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.

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