The first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been released by Colorado State University. It is highly likely we will have a below-average season.

The reason for the high likelihood of a less active-than-average season is due to the presence of El Niño, which favors such conditions during the summer. When El Niño is active during hurricane season, trade winds in the Atlantic intensify, which typically inhibits the development of tropical storms.

Currently, Atlantic temperatures are below average. Water surface temperature models do not suggest that they will rise above average, which may contribute to the development of fewer storms. We pay close attention to water temperatures as the hotter they are, the more they fuel storms.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and the lead author of the report specified that this season could be quite similar to the seasons of 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023. Dr. Klotzbach also noted that the April forecast presents high levels of uncertainty.

This forecast is the first issued by CSU and will be followed by three others in June, July, and August. Please remember that this type of forecast does not pinpoint exactly where or when a storm might make landfall. We must remain informed and prepared at all times for any storm that may form.