Hurricane Ian: Big water nightmare for west Florida

Hurricane Ian continues intensifying. Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph (Category 2) as the Hurricane Hunters find it much better organized with a defined eyewall structure. The first landfall is expected in western Cuba overnight tonight and it will move into the eastern Gulf with eyes on western Florida later this week.

Ian is moving into some of the warmest, bath-like waters available in the Caribbean (at least 86 F) over the next several hours with little to no wind shear – a perfect setup for a hurricane to rapidly intensify, which requires the sustained winds to increase at least 35 mph within 24 hours. Forecast indices point to a 90 percent chance of rapid intensification taking place today.

A Hurricane warning is in effect for the Tampa Bay area southward to Englewood & Dry Tortugas. A storm surge warning is also in effect for this stretch of western Florida.

Tune in to our live broadcast with Meteorologist Irene Sans on our Facebook Page for Hurricane Ian updates at 6 p.m. EST/5 p.m. CST Monday.

Florida is the next stop for Ian after hitting Cuba tonight. Tropical storm force impacts are expected to reach the Keys starting late tonight where tropical storm warnings have been issued. These impacts include heavy rain, storm surge, and tornadoes. South and Central Florida are also in the line of fire when it comes to tornadoes produced by outer bands starting tonight.

An exact landfall location is still hard to pinpoint, but the area of likely landfall is more defined as between Naples and the central Florida Panhandle, which includes Tampa Bay, the third most populated city in Florida. A hurricane watch has been issued from the Anclote River to Englewood.

Regardless of an exact landfall location, much of western Florida, including some of the Panhandle, could experience damaging hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), life-threatening storm surge, tornadoes, and flooding rains.

The Florida Keys could receive up to 6 inches of rain, with more possible locally and in the heaviest bands. As for central-west Florida, 8 to 10 inches of rain will be likely, with up to 15 inches maximum in local spots causing dangerous flash flooding. The rest of the Florida Peninsula could see up to 8 inches of heavy rain from Ian.

Not to be outdone, current forecasts show Ian sitting off the west-central Florida coast for more than 24 to 36 hours. Not only could this cause extensive wind and flooding damage but the storm surge will keep coming. Flooding will be extensive and will happen well inland. Rainfall totals are additional to the water levels rising from the storm surge.

Current forecasts have storm surge up to 10 feet above ground possible at the time of high tide between the Anclote River and Englewood, Fla., with up to 5 and 8 feet on the north and south bookends of these coasts starting Wednesday morning. The eastern Gulf floor has an upward-sloping shelf that isn’t very steep, making it much easier for water to be pushed inland by the hurricane.

Florida should continue to monitor the progression of Ian and prepare as soon as possible. Pay attention to evacuation orders and know your route before the message is issued. Governor DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for Florida ahead of Ian’s impact.

Here are some tips on staying safe from storm surge and what you can do to prepare for Hurricane Ian now.

Ian is expected to make landfall tonight in western Cuba as a major category 3 hurricane (winds 111- plus mph) as it turns toward the north-northwest. Hurricane warnings have been issued which means preparations should be rushed to completion across western Cuba.

In addition to the life-threatening winds and storm surge up to 14 feet above normal tide levels, heavy rains up to 16 inches can flood buildings and streets and cause mudslides over the higher terrain of western Cuba.