An area of low pressure is developing over the western Caribbean. This system, once it takes a better definition, could be the next named cyclone of the season, which would be Vince or Whitney. There could be also another system developing east of Florida late this week. November got busy!

We arrived in mid-November, and we are still monitoring the tropics. Over the western Caribbean, near Panama, a low pressure is forming that may take on tropical characteristics by the end of the week. With more fronts exiting the United States, once the system moves a bit north it would cause the storm to move northeast.

This movement to the northeast would put the central Caribbean islands in the crosshairs of this probable cyclone. So, the southern part of Cuba, Jamaica, The Caymans, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic must be very attentive to any development of this system. These areas should prepare for a marked increase in rainfall starting Thursday. These rains would last until late Saturday night or Sunday morning.

Although we already mentioned that it is likely that the central areas of the Caribbean will receive more rain, there is also another possible scenario with this possible system.

There is a possibility that this low pressure will remain parked over the western Caribbean for a bit longer, even over the weekend. If this occurs, the opportunity opens for this system, if there was one at that time, to change course.

Where would it move? With about a week of it being a possible scenario, to possibly occur, this is not known at this point. Not only is there a lot of time left, but there is a lot of uncertainty. It is highly dependent on the storm traveling over the Gulf of Mexico. It could push it northeast if a front develops.

For now, this week, we will be watching how this area evolves and what happens with the weather pattern over the United States. The passage of fronts will also be what can push this system toward the east. We will keep an eye on how the atmospheric pattern synchronizes and will bring you updates daily this week.

Another area not yet mentioned by the National Hurricane Center is the storm that will be affecting the Gulf Coast this week. Although it doesn’t have a chance to develop over the Gulf, its energy will move east of Florida late this week. Once it is over the eastern Atlantic, it could acquire tropical characteristics. It doesn´t represent a direct threat to Florida, but there could be large swells, and beach erosion if this system becomes better organized. The Carolinas and mid-Atlantic coast should closely monitor this system. A front will likely push this system out to sea, but there could be collateral impacts along these coasts as well as periods of heavy rains.