These next several days will bring significant rainfall to the Ark-La-Tex and South as a firehose of moisture streams out of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the eastern U.S. is the main mechanism for bringing up the southerly moisture into the southern U.S. It is also responsible for the spring preview this week in the East. Many are dealing with the northern, icy flank of this storm that has ice risks stretching 500 miles.

These next three days, Monday to Wednesday, as much as 7 to 10 inches of rainfall could be picked up in the main bullseye, but anywhere from 2 to 7 inches will spread from eastern Texas to the lower Ohio Valley and the Deep South.

These several days of rainfall have prompted slight risks for possible flooding, a level two out of four.

Monday’s bullseye focuses on eastern Texas where up to 5 inches of rainfall are possible by early Tuesday morning. And, as seen on the WeatherRadar, it’s already raining. The slight risk for excessive rainfall today includes Houston, Lufkin, and Tyler, Texas, as well as southwestern Arkansas and the southeast corner of Oklahoma.

Most may see between 2 and 4 inches of rain through the Tuesday morning commute, but the localized 5 inches are not out of the question. A surface warm front in combination with the high pressure has a warm and wet southeasterly flow providing the moisture needed to keep the rainfall coming.

This system is a relatively slow mover. By Tuesday, the flooding rain risk is in mostly the same spots but with an expansion eastward into the Mid-South. This time, a marginal risk for severe storms has also been added to the mix. The heavy rain could come in combination with damaging gusts, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes.

It’s important to remember that the risk for excessive rainfall in the southern Plains and Mid-South is partially present due to persistent drought conditions and saturation of the ground from Monday’s rain activity as well, not just because heavy rain is expected in addition Tuesday.

The more rain that falls, the harder it becomes for repeat rainfall to soak into the ground easily, resulting in puddling and even flooding. Be sure to take precautions when you’re out.

The slow progression of the storm system eastward continues Wednesday. Those from far-east Texas through the western Tennessee Valley and parts of northwest Alabama are included in the mid-week slight risk for excessive rainfall.

We could see a fresh 3 to 6 inches stretching across the slight risk zone Wednesday through the Thursday morning commute but it still doesn’t stop there. Excessive rainfall risks across the Deep South are present on Thursday and Friday too. We’ll keep the forecast updated daily to bring you the latest information.