Tropical update: Break? Earl, disturbance losing punch

The season picked up a lot is accumulated cyclone energy this week with Earl and Danielle spinning over the Atlantic, and the best part is that none of these systems affected land directly.

Earl reached peak intensity on Thursday afternoon with 105 mph maximum sustained winds but a slot of dry air enter its south side and the structure became ragged. Its wind field has significantly grown and it is showing signs of its transitioning to an extratropical system soon. As of Friday, early morning Earl’s hurricane-force winds have expanded out to 60 miles from its center and it is expected to continue to expand.

Earl will continue over water without affecting land directly. Due to its size and wind field, seas will become tougher along the U.S. Eastern sea coast, with also a high risk of rip currents. Earl will begin losing its strength Friday and more during the weekend stay out over the open mother North Atlantic.

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A tropical wave, Invest 95L located between Africa and the Caribbean is still not expected to gain strength. This disturbance still has a medium chance to develop, but it is approaching an area of strong shear and very dry air, so chances to develop with decrease over the weekend as it moves over the open Atlantic.

The freshly emerged tropical wave, located a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands has a low chance to develop during the next five days. It has a long way to go before it comes anywhere near land. We expect this system to continue traveling to the west at about 20 mph and conditions could become favorable for development once it moves over the central tropical Atlantic. We will be monitoring it throughout the weekend.

Perhaps we will go a few days without any name tropical activity in the Atlantic. This is common as there are atmospheric conditions that circle the globe that aid storm development and others that suppress them. Apparently, we could be entering a suppressing phase. At least for a few days.