Tropical update: It’s happening: 4 disturbances on tap

As we have predicted for a few weeks, the tropics have woken up this week. There are currently four areas we are closely monitoring. One robust tropical wave has the highest chance of developing, which is currently located east of the Windward Islands.

The first tropical wave we will discuss is located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. There are clusters of thunderstorms, but the entire wave continues to be very disorganized on Monday morning. It is moving west-northwest between 5 to 10 mph and it is expected to gradually develop this week as conditions are more favorable once it reaches an area adjacent northeast of the Caribbean.

There could be many computer model solutions roaming around social media. Please don’t get caught up on one model run. Please check your sources. Keep in mind that one model has several runs in a day. Most importantly, without a well-defined center of circulation, it is impossible to have an idea where this system could be heading.

Another tropical wave we are monitoring is over the Caribbean. Currently, it is not forecast to develop but once it continues to move west-northwest conditions could become more favorable for this system to develop. In the long term, this system will move into the Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear is forecast to be low and there is plenty of warm waters for the system to feed off from.

The next tropical wave, located in the subtropical Atlantic, east of Bermuda, is being limited by strong wind shear and dry air. There is a small chance for this system to develop within five days as the system moves south-southwest.

Finally, we shift to Africa. There is a robust tropical wave about to emerge from the continent and it has about a 30 percent chance of developing within the next five days. This wave is thousands of miles east of the U.S. so there is plenty of time to watch it.