Tropical update: W. Atlantic low: Downpours, strong winds
May 26, 2023
W. Atlantic low: Downpours, strong winds
We continue to watch a broad low-pressure area just to the east of Florida this Friday. This system has a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical system, but it has more going against it than for it. Let’s discuss it!
A low-pressure area is meandering just off the coast of northeast Florida, but it comes with a dragging front over Florida and attached to another low-pressure barreling over South Florida on Friday morning. It is unlikely that this system will have time to lose the fronts and develop tropical characteristics as it is relatively close to land as it moves northward.
With a very strong high pressure located over the Northeast, this system will take its sweet time moving northward, but it will. Due to its slow movement and positioning the Carolinas’ coast is in a prime spot to get a constant stream of moisture thrown at it this weekend.
This means rounds of heavy rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. South Carolina’s coast will get the most active weather from Friday night into Saturday, but North Carolinas will also get downpours and thunderstorms extending over the coast through the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.
At this point, the low will still be located over the Georgia/South Carolina coast but over water. By late Saturday evening, the low will be coming close to the northern coast of South Carolina, but our WeatherRadar shows the entire state of North Carolina covered in precipitation which extends through parts of Virginia and northeastern Tennessee, southeastern Kentucky, and southern West Virginia.
Sunday will be a rainy day for most of the mid-Atlantic States. There will be some heavier rain clusters within the main general activity.
Through Monday morning, South Carolina and North Carolina are expected to receive between 2 and 4 inches, but there will be some areas, especially along the coast, that could receive more than 8 inches.
Strong winds, power outages & erosion
Gusty winds will be a big concern Friday and Saturday, especially from the southern Virginia coast through the Florida northeastern coast. These strong winds will likely cause some beach erosion as the winds will be strong from the northeast. As the low moves closer to land on Saturday afternoon, the winds will shift, and stronger winds will affect the coast but also some areas inland. Winds of at least 40 mph could down trees, and powerlines, which will likely cause some clusters of power outages.
By Sunday, although the winds will be winding down, some strong gusts could also affect the Appalachians, especially the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Although the low will be dissipating, there will still be some rains showers affecting the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and mid-Atlantic states on Monday. Check the WeatherRadar for conditions in your city up to 4 days in advance.